1. An overview of the titanium industry
1.1 Introduction of titanium metal
Titanium is known as the "all-round metal" in the kingdom of metal materials, and it is the "third metal", "strategic metal" and "space metal" with great development prospects after iron and aluminum. Pure titanium is a silver-white metal with many excellent properties. Titanium is 43% less dense than steel and slightly more dense than the light metal magnesium. The strength of titanium is high, and the tensile strength of pure titanium can reach up to 180kg/mm2, which is similar to that of steel, twice that of aluminum, and five times that of magnesium. Titanium is resistant to high temperatures, with a melting point of 1942K, which is nearly 1000K higher than gold and nearly 500K higher than steel. Some steels are stronger than titanium alloys, but the specific strength (the ratio of tensile strength to density) of titanium alloys exceeds that of high-quality steel. Due to its stable chemical properties, good high temperature resistance, low temperature resistance, strong acid resistance, strong alkali resistance, high strength and low density, it has been widely used in aerospace, petrochemical, biomedicine, environmental protection and other fields.
Specific advantageous properties of titanium include:
① High specific strength: the density of titanium is 4.5g/cm3, which is 43% lighter than steel, but its mechanical strength is similar to that of steel, twice that of aluminum and five times that of magnesium, so it shows a higher specific strength (anti- ratio of tensile strength to apparent density of the material);
② Good corrosion resistance: At room temperature, an extremely thin and dense oxide protective film is easily formed on the surface of titanium, which can resist the action of strong acid or even aqua regia, showing strong corrosion resistance. The submarine made of titanium alloy can not only resist seawater corrosion, but also resist deep pressure, and its diving depth is 80% higher than that of stainless steel submarines. In addition, titanium is non-magnetic and will not be found by mines, so it has a good anti-surveillance and monitoring function.
1.2 Titanium smelting
Compared with other metals, titanium and its alloys are highly chemically active metals, which chemically react with almost all refractory materials in the molten state, and cannot be smelted in the atmosphere, and must be smelted in a vacuum or inert atmosphere, so titanium alloys The smelting technology is quite difficult, and currently only a few countries have mastered the smelting technology of titanium alloys.
1.3 Titanium Ore Supply End
Global titanium resources are mainly distributed in Australia, South Africa, Canada, China and India. According to data from the Industry Information Network, China has the highest ilmenite reserves in 2020, reaching 230 million tons, accounting for 32.86% of the world's total reserves; followed by Australia, with 150 million tons of reserves, accounting for 21.43% of the world's total reserves .
From the perspective of import source countries, my country's titanium concentrate imports are mainly concentrated in seven countries: Mozambique, Vietnam, Kenya, Norway, Australia, South Korea and India. The import volume of the above seven countries accounts for 81.8% of the total import volume. Overall, the import concentration Relatively high. In 2021, China will import 3.8 million tons of titanium concentrate, a year-on-year increase of 26.06%. Titanium concentrates imported from Mozambique accounted for 38.5% of the total imports, and titanium concentrates are highly dependent on foreign countries.
1.4 Demand side of titanium ore: Huge space in aerospace field
Titanium is a material with excellent physical properties and stable chemical properties. Titanium and its alloys have high strength, small specific gravity, resistance to seawater corrosion and marine atmosphere corrosion, and can well meet people's requirements for marine engineering applications. After years of hard work by people in the titanium industry and marine engineering application researchers, titanium has been widely used in the fields of offshore oil and gas development, harbor construction, coastal power stations, seawater desalination, ships, marine fisheries and marine thermal energy conversion.
Titanium alloy - the star metal of new weapons and equipment
2.1 Military application of titanium alloy
2.1.1 Aeronautics: Titanium Alloy Specific Gravity Measures the Advancement of Aircraft
Due to the characteristics of low density, high specific strength, good corrosion resistance, and low thermal conductivity, titanium alloys are widely used in aircraft structural parts (such as skins, pipe parts, fasteners, various sheet metal parts and bearings) Components, etc.) and engines (such as compressor discs, stator blades, moving blades, casings, combustion chamber casings, exhaust mechanism casings, central bodies, jet pipes, compressor blades, wheel discs, casings, etc.) and other parts.
2.1.2 Aerospace field: major construction projects and missile reserves will increase the demand for titanium alloys
Weight loss is the most considered issue in the structural design and manufacture of aerospace vehicles. Improving structural efficiency is the key. At the same time, structural materials are required to have good environmental adaptability, such as adapting to corrosive service environments such as high temperature, high humidity, and high salt. Titanium alloy materials replace traditional steel materials, which can greatly reduce the structural weight of aerospace vehicles and at the same time improve the corrosion resistance of aerospace vehicle structures. It is of great significance to improve service reliability and other aspects. Therefore, titanium alloy materials have been favored by aerospace vehicle designers since their production. Titanium alloys account for 5% to 30% of the mass of space rockets. In fact, there is no space rocket that does not use titanium and titanium alloys. For example, it has been widely used in spacecraft such as "Energy-Blizzard", "Venus", "Moon" and "Mirror" of the former Soviet Union. At present, the application of titanium alloy in the aerospace field is mainly in three aspects: ① application in rocket engine system; ② application in space vehicle power system; ③ application in missile weapon system.
2.1.3 Ships and warships: excellent corrosion resistance is naturally suitable for ships
Due to its high specific strength and excellent corrosion resistance in seawater and marine atmospheres, titanium alloys are also widely used in the field of ships. Mainly used in pressure-resistant hulls, structural parts, buoyancy system spheres, pump bodies, pipes and deck accessories of water ships, speedboat propellers, propulsion shafts, hydrofoil hydrofoils, whip antennas, etc. At present, the application of titanium alloys in ships is mainly concentrated in some key parts, but with the continuous maturity of the titanium alloy industry and the reduction of costs, the proportion of titanium alloy applications in ships will continue to increase in the future.
3. Future development of titanium alloy application end
3.1 Military market: the high-end titanium market is vast
There is a large gap between my country's military aircraft and the United States in terms of quantity, and there is a significant demand for increasing the total amount. Military aircraft is a general term for aircraft that directly participate in combat, support combat operations and military training, and is the main technical equipment of the aviation force. According to the statistics of "World Air Forces 2021", as of 2020, the total number of active military aircraft in the United States is 13,232, accounting for 25% of the global active military aircraft, while the total number of active military aircraft in my country is 3,260, accounting for only 6% of the global active military aircraft . According to the subdivision of models, fighter jets are the main force in my country's military aircraft, with a total of 1,571, but the number is less than 60% of that of the United States in the same period, and the number of other models is far behind that of the United States, with a significant total Raise demand.
The main demand for aerospace titanium alloys comes from the regular maintenance and replacement of aero-engines. At present, titanium alloys in engines are mainly used in the medium temperature zone (ceramic matrix composites are used in the low temperature zone, and nickel-based or cobalt-based superalloys are used in the high-temperature zone), accounting for about 30% of the mass. In addition, we assume that the assembly ratio of the engine is 1:1.5, that is, 50% of the spare engine is required. According to the statistics of my country's stock military aircraft in 2020 in "World Air Forces 2021", and superimposing Zhiyan Consulting's forecast on the number of new military aircraft in my country from 2021 to 2030, we estimate that by 2030, the number of fighter jets in my country will be about 8,305.
According to the statistics of the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute on the proportion of titanium alloys accounting for about 30% of the engine, assuming that the engine is repaired and renewed once every two years, and the average annual maintenance time is 0.5 times, we expect that after the number of military aircraft in my country stabilizes in 2030, the annual titanium consumption of military aeroengines will increase. The total demand for alloys is about 55,049 tons. In addition to military aircraft fuselages and aero engines, titanium alloys are also used in military equipment such as missiles. The amount of titanium used is difficult to predict, but we believe that under the premise of increasing the number of military aircraft, the demand for missiles carried by them is likely to increase accordingly. It is expected that other fields The total demand for titanium for equipment will also increase.
3.2 Civilian market: strong demand in the Asia-Pacific region, C919 will be released soon
The global passenger aircraft market is vast, and deliveries in China and the Asia-Pacific region are expected to grow rapidly. According to the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China's market forecast annual report (2020-2039), the global jet fleet in 2019 has a total of 23,856 passenger aircraft. In terms of global historical deliveries, the European market dominated by Airbus and the North American market dominated by Boeing accounted for a relatively large share of the total market, accounting for 20.27% and 27.99% of the global total respectively. China and the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) accounted for 16.62% and 16.02% respectively, and China has become nearly half of the passenger aircraft delivery countries in the Asia-Pacific region. It is expected that China and the Asia-Pacific region will develop rapidly in the field of civil aviation from 2020 to 2039, accounting for about 41.6% of the world's passenger aircraft deliveries.
Similar to military fighter jets, titanium materials in civil airliners are also used in the body and aero-engines. Although the overall proportion of titanium alloy structure is lower than that of military fighters, due to the large mass of empty aircraft, the amount of titanium used in a single passenger aircraft is significantly higher than that of military fighters. According to data, the titanium alloy structure of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner accounts for 15%, and the titanium alloy consumption of the fuselage is about 8.5 tons to 10 tons. China's first single-aisle turbofan jetliner C919 with independent intellectual property rights, there are more than 20 titanium alloy parts on the wing and body, including forgings, thick plates, thin plates, pipes, etc. The titanium alloy structure accounts for 9.3%. About 1.9 tons.Combined with COMAC's "Civil Aircraft Market Forecast Annual Report (2020-2039)", the C919 large aircraft (single-aisle passenger aircraft) civil market will bring about 11,280 tons of titanium alloy demand from 2020 to 2039. According to China Aviation News, in 2021, the first domestic large aircraft C919 may be delivered to Eastern Airlines after obtaining the airworthiness certificate. With the official delivery of the domestic large aircraft, the civil aviation titanium market will realize from "zero" to One" leap.
4. Competition Analysis of Titanium Alloy Overall Market
4.1 "Department Store" and "Specialty Store" Competitive Landscape of Titanium Alloys
Military high-end titanium alloys do not directly compete with foreign countries, but there is still a certain gap: Although the research work on titanium alloy materials in my country has made significant progress in recent years, the quality of titanium alloy products used in high-end fields is still far behind that of foreign countries. Such as titanium alloy extrusion profiles, die forgings, large titanium alloy wide and thick plates, large titanium alloy castings, titanium alloy rods and wires for aviation fasteners, etc., it is urgent for my country's titanium industry to improve product quality to fully meet the needs of national defense and military industries. The need for the development of titanium alloys. At present, the main foreign manufacturers include Toho Titanium Corporation of Japan, Titanium Metal Corporation of the United States, and VSMPO-AVISMA of Russia. Since all countries have strict restrictions on the export of military materials, the current domestic high-end titanium alloy military market will basically not face competition from foreign companies.But in the future, with the mass production of my country's civil aviation large aircraft, on the one hand, it will open up the market space, and on the other hand, it will also compete with international leading titanium alloy enterprises in civil aviation titanium alloys.
The titanium processing industry has formed a pattern of large state-owned enterprises as the leader: At present, my country's titanium processing industry has undergone nearly 10 years of structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, and has formed a state-owned The first-line leading enterprises represented by large enterprises, relying on their years of industry technology accumulation and background, have achieved the best level in the past 10 years in terms of output and profit level.
Competitive pattern of "department store" and "specialty store": From a historical point of view, Baotai, Western Superconductor and Western Materials have the same source. The original three were one, and they were military service research sites for national construction. Baoji was the first to be a research institute. Plus processing plants, until the mid-80s. The research institute independently became the Northwest Nonferrous Metals Research Institute, moved from Baoji to Xi'an, and then successively established Western Materials and Western Superconductors. Western Materials was originally engaged in rare refractory metals. Later, Western Titanium and Western Materials reorganized and joined the titanium alloy business. Western Superconductor was the first to make superconducting materials, and titanium alloy is also a business that has been added in subsequent development.From the current point of view, due to its historical status, Baotai is the titanium alloy manufacturer with the longest industrialization, the largest, and the most complete material varieties. It can be regarded as a "department store" for titanium alloys. The two actual controllers of Western Materials and Western Superconductor are both the Northwest Nonferrous Metal Research Institute, so there are restrictions on competition in the same industry, resulting in Western Materials are mainly titanium alloy plates and pipes, and Western Superconductor is mainly titanium alloy rods and wires. The two companies each have strong competitiveness in their own fields, and can be regarded as "specialty stores" for a certain type of titanium alloy.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" has introduced production expansion plans: in 2021, three listed titanium alloy companies announced their expansion plans respectively. It is estimated that the total production capacity of titanium alloys in Western Materials will reach 10,000 tons after the fundraising projects reach production capacity; Western Superconductivity expects that the production capacity of titanium alloys will exceed 10,000 tons after the fundraising projects reach production capacity. Taking a comprehensive look at the three companies By the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the total production capacity of titanium alloys will exceed 70,000 tons, and we expect the production capacity of military products to reach about 30,000 tons.
4.2 Relevant capacity and output of domestic enterprises
In 2020, China's titanium processing industry has undergone nearly ten years of structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and has formed Baoti Group Co., Ltd., Western Superconducting Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Hunan Xiangtou Jintian Titanium Co., Ltd. and Western Materials Technology Co., Ltd. First-line leading enterprises represented by large state-owned enterprises such as Co., Ltd., relying on their years of industrial technology accumulation and background, they have achieved the best level in the past ten years in terms of output and profit levels; in addition, Xinjiang Private enterprises represented by Xiangrun New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Chongqing Kingsley Aviation Materials Co., Ltd., and Shaanxi Tiancheng Aviation Materials Co., Ltd. continue to be optimistic about the market demand in high-end fields such as military industry and medical treatment in the future. Achieved outstanding performance.
According to the statistics of 32 domestic titanium material production enterprises in my country, in 2020, my country produced a total of 97,029 tons of titanium processed materials, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, which has been growing for six consecutive years. In terms of industrial distribution, it can be seen from the above statistical data that the production of sponge titanium is mainly distributed in Liaoning, and the output of five enterprises accounts for more than one-third (34.6%) of the country's total, a year-on-year decrease;The production of titanium and titanium alloy ingots is mainly concentrated in Shaanxi, and the output of 14 major production enterprises accounts for more than 40% (46.5%) of China's output, which has increased year-on-year; the production of titanium and titanium alloy bars is also mainly concentrated in Shaanxi, with output in The output of the main seven production enterprises above 500t accounted for 74.6% of the total; the output of the four main titanium plate production enterprises in Shaanxi accounted for 22.7% of the country, a year-on-year decrease; the production of titanium tubes was mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta region, mainly The output of the 4 manufacturing enterprises accounted for 34.4% of the total annual output, a year-on-year increase. In the military field, Baotai, Western Superconductor, Western Materials, and Jintian Titanium are the main suppliers. From the perspective of product form and focus, the four have almost no direct competition.
5. Viewpoint of action research
Due to its high-quality properties, high specific strength, good corrosion resistance, and good superconductivity, titanium alloys have been widely used in various fields. Titanium alloys are divided into three categories: low, medium, and high-end. The low-end is mainly concentrated in industries such as the chemical industry, manufacturing, and energy. Due to the high-quality requirements of the military industry for metals, mid-to-high-end titanium alloys are rigidly used in aerospace and other manufacturing.
my country's titanium processing is mainly used in the chemical industry. Compared with the world, the main difference is in the aviation field. Global aviation titanium materials always account for about 53% of the total demand for titanium materials, while the proportion of domestic aerospace titanium materials is only 20%. Facing an increasingly complex international political environment, China not only has concerns about national military security, but also has a strong willingness to replace military technology and industries with domestic products. In addition, the rise of domestic large aircraft C919, domestic satellite aerospace, and other civil fields will inevitably drive the production capacity of raw material and accessory manufacturers to increase. However, there are strong market competition risks in the civilian market, and the process of domestic substitution still faces the pressure of price wars. Compared with the military market, it will rely more on cost optimization brought about by scale effects. On the whole, the demand for titanium materials in the mid-to-high-end sector is showing an accelerated growth trend. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the demand for high-end titanium alloys showed a rapid growth momentum of 20%. With the support of the new domestic substitution process, my country's independent high-end titanium material manufacturers have a lot of room for imagination in the future market.
